Disclosure: I worked for the Lamont campaign doing web design and production and some writing for the official blog (from 9/5/06 to 11/07/06).

Monday, May 01, 2006


Rasmussen: Lieberman 51%, Lamont 30%

Chris at MyDD breaks the numbers of the first poll on the race since February. The headline, to me: an 18-year incumbent senator is barely breaking 50% in a primary race. And the more people get to know Ned Lamont, the more they love him.

There is no trendline to look at, as the previous poll which had the race at 68%-13% was from Quinnipiac, but combined with the April SUSA numbers showing significant downward Joementum (is there any other kind?), it is obvious the Lamont challenge is for real.
Is the glass half empty or half full?

It's discouraging for me to see numbers like this. How can DINO Joementum STILL have a 51% approval?

Ned Lamont MUST work twice as hard to get his word out and take control of the race.
Its half full.

You must consider that Ned is not yet well known. He's been in the race for a month and a half and has not been running TV ads.

His name ID numbers, which I'd like to see, are probably fairly low.

What is significant is that against a fairly unknown candidate, Lieberman pulls only 51%, which is not a sure sign of impending doom, but is not high to allow him to breathe easy.

As Lamont gets more well known, his numbers will go up. If he does better than expected at the convention, Lieberman will be crippled, especially if Lamont gets a majority.
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