Disclosure: I worked for the Lamont campaign doing web design and production and some writing for the official blog (from 9/5/06 to 11/07/06).
Sunday, October 08, 2006
Sunday Morning Round-Up
30 days to go. Lots to get to this morning.
- Colin McEnroe has a great big-picture take on the race a month out from election day, and the odd dynamics at work:
So even as Lieberman lost some of the voters who typically vote for him, he gained some of the voters who typically vote gainst him. The family and friends of President Bush have let the word go forth to all who will heed them: You may vote for Joe without the slightest trace of hesitation or guilt....
With each passing day Lieberman depends more and more on the least motivated voters. Least motivated to turn out, I mean. A Republican or conservative-unaffiliated who doesn't like the war, who doesnt like Bush and who is now appalled by the Foley scandal, has less incentive to go to the polls. That voter thinks: Jodi Rell doesn't need me, and I don't like anybody else.
As Colin points out, 40% should be enough to win a three-way race. Even Lieberman's hapless Republican challengers in past cycles both got over 30%. Schlesinger is still at 5%. Do the math, and it's easy to see - any gain for Schlesinger is a gain for Lamont. Lieberman has every interest in being the de-facto Republican (and getting votes from Bush supporters) and no interest in any GOP support flowing to the real Republican in the race.
- The notion of Lieberman as the de-facto Republican is confirmed by a new poll in the 4th CD (which has the race as a dead heat in what is really both candidates' "home" district):
U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman leads Democrat Ned Lamont 42 percent to 39 percent among likely 4th Congressional District voters, according to a poll conducted for The Advocate and Greenwich Time....
...said Monika McDermott of the University of Connecticut's Center for Survey Research and Analysis, which conducted the poll, "The most noticeable thing is, at least in Fairfield County, it's like theLieberman-Lamont race is only between two candidates, and Lieberman is the Republican."
The poll results are similar to another Advocate/Greenwich Time poll, released last week, showing U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Bridgeport, leading Democratic challenger Diane Farrell 44 percent to 40 percent in the 4th District race....
- Paul Bass also hits on this in a column for the Courant - "Republican" is a dirty word in Connecticut these days, especially if you're running as one:
Although we don't seem to have "Republican" candidates, the national Republican money is flowing even to one candidate who technically is not a Republican: Joe Lieberman.
... The list (see "Seasonal Memory Lapses," NE, June 4) is practically too long to enter in the Congressional record, let alone replay here in full. Suffice it to say that if anyone is a loyal Republican in deed, if not name, it's Joe Lieberman.
But he's not admitting that. Not in a state where Republican voters lag behind Democrats and unaffiliated voters by hundreds of thousands.
But he's also taking all the Republican help and appealing directly to Republicans in this race. He can have it both ways: Wink at his Republican base (the group of voters who support him in the highest proportion in the polls) while claiming not to belong to a party that's not very popular in Connecticut this year. Reap the rewards of serving the needs of President Bush while pretending to the folks back home that he opposes the guy.
- And Bill Hillsman also takes Joe to task for his claims of "independence" in the pages of the Courant:
Real political independents don't lose their party primary and suddenly convert to being an independent just to cling to their seats.
Real political independents are for change and new, fresh, better solutions. They are not interested in 18-year incumbents whose poor judgment was instrumental in causing the problems we are now trying to solve. Real independents are looking for some shred of accountability and responsibility in Washington for the blunders that have been made by the people Joe Lieberman consistently supported: George W. Bush, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld.
In Connecticut's U.S. Senate race, Joe Lieberman is trying to be - simultaneously - the de facto Republican candidate, a Democrat and an independent. He may think this is a clever political ploy or some evidence of nonpartisanship. But real independents see through this kind of "politrick" and recognize it for what it really is: pandering.
- Want even more on this theme? Mark Pazniokas pens a good profile of Ned as the real non-packaged outsider and independent at this stage in the race:
But his circle of advisers - the group includes former Democratic and Republican state chairmen, labor and community organizers - hardly cringe when Lamont doesn't act like a pol.
"I think with everything happening in Washington, people are looking for leaders with real-life experience and [who] aren't packaged like a fast-food product," said Tom Swan, his campaign manager. "Ned is that."...
"He is inexperienced at what?" asked Thomas D'Amore, a former GOP chairman who left the party to help elect Lowell P. Weicker Jr. governor in 1990. He is a Lamont adviser. "He is exactly the kind of person who has the right life experiences. He is not an actor. He is not a phony. He is the real deal."
- In other news, the Connecticut Post notices something called "blogs", and expectedly gets things almost, but not quite, entirely and utterly wrong. Watch the blogger in his natural habitat:
Usually a blogger will write a post on one specific topic, typically based on a news story or opinion piece from another media outlet, offering their personal take on the subject.
And then watch Dan Gerstein contradict himself yet again:
"I personally am a fan of blogging, I think it's a really exciting development that has the potential to dramatically democratize the political landscape," said Gerstein. "But I would say, in our campaign, for the most part blogs have been used as sort of an underground railroad for misinformation about Joe Lieberman's record."
Gerstein said the Lamont crew “did a brilliant job of using technology to build a support base and organize a campaign” in the primary.... “Ten years from now it will probably be looked at as a model for how campaigns will be run,” Gerstein predicted.
I guess Dan Gerstein aspires to being an "underground railroad for misinformation."
- Spazeboy (just one of those "anonymous" bloggers like... Dan Gerstein) gets profiled in NE Magazine, and does a much better job educating the wider public about blogs:
If I read a news article in The Courant or in any newspaper, my expectation is that the reporter has no bias, but that is completely unrealistic. The reporter is a citizen who votes for candidate X or Y. In reading [his or her work], you don't know where the writer stands. On the blog, if you come there for news, you know exactly where I stand. If you want an opposing point of view, I may not link to it, but it's possible to find it.
I was just ego-surfing this morning when I noticed that your Dan Gerstein link is broken.
Thanks, Beau, and great job with the interview! I guess you can be anonymous and egotistical at the same time. Who knew?
Presumably Ned is going to run an ad showing Lieberman standing up for Hastert which asks "Why is Joe Lieberman standing up for Hastert?", followed by some words from Ned on how odious this scandal is. Should be good. I still think Ned can pull this out.Post a Comment