Disclosure: I worked for the Lamont campaign doing web design and production and some writing for the official blog (from 9/5/06 to 11/07/06).

Tuesday, October 31, 2006


Kissing and Telling

The AP on Bush backing down from yesterday's endorsement of Joe:

Democrat Ned Lamont questioned Sen. Joe Lieberman's independence after President Bush praised the incumbent for his support of the Iraq war.

"Clearly President Bush and Dick Cheney are out there campaigning for Joe Lieberman," Lamont said Tuesday during a campaign stop. "They think it's a vote that they can count upon in a pinch ... The president is out there speaking loud and clear on behalf of Joe."...

Lieberman played down Bush's comments Tuesday.

"I have said from the first days after the primary ... that I was not going to allow this campaign to become a national political plaything for either side or anybody," he said.

What's up with Andrew Miga of AP?

"Kind words from Bush could help Lieberman in the three-way race. Republican Alan Schlesinger is trailing far behind in surveys and has received no support from national Republicans."

Do kind words from Bush help Lieberman with Democrats and Independents? Miga is all narrative in his stories with no context. A Lieberman/Cheney campaign appearance might push Schleisenger down to 3% in the polls but I'm pretty sure it would also push Lamont over 50%. Ned Lamont is out making hay over Bush's comments and Andrew Miga still thinks it's good for Lieberman.

Reality check. The saturday Rasmussen pol shows Ned at 40% which if you assume he got all the dems to vote for him means that he got an additional 6% of independents. I'm not sure he's ever done much better, don't think it is exactly making hay. And he won't. He has not platform except he hates Bush. His campaign was flawed from the gitgo because he only appeals to the fringe. I dare say it is like when McGovern ran against Nixon. Libs loved him, but the rest of the world was scared. TTFN
Look, the trends are simple enough for trolls to read and understand.

Still, they're only a snapshot. Let's see whose talking on 11/8.

In the meantime, keep your powder dry...
so true. the only snap shot that counts is 11/7
Do you really trust the polls this year? I hope the polls are right that Virginia and Tennessee and Montana are so strong for the Democratic candidates but I wouldn't bet on any of those races.

And I think that guy Steele has a chance of winning in MD, one of the most Democratic states in the country, because I watched the debate on MTP and the Democratic candidate is like a boiled potato. I can see African American voters looking at that and thinking that the only reason Cardin beat Mfume in the primary was because white voters wouldn't vote for the black guy; it surely was not that Cardin is such an appealing figure. So why shouldn't they vote their ethnicity in the general?

I'm hoping the Democrats will take over one house just to stop Bush from invading some other country. He's so petulant that he could do that.
@joanbasil -- I'm from Baltimore originally and Ben Cardin has been a fine representative for that state for years. He doesn't have great stage presence, as you indicated. Kwasi Mfume did well in the primary and is well liked by both blacks and whites, but you may be right about the race factor. Mfume and Cardin are good friends and Mfume, unlike Lieberman, had the good grace to congratulate and fully support Cardin.

Steele may have looked good in the debate, but he is a terrible candidate (too many reasons to address here).

But you are very right -- the race is too close to call, as with the other states you mentioned. I'm sure the Courant already has its Lieberman Wins masthead ready -- let's just hope that it is right up there with Dewey Wins.
Actually Joan I never trust the polls the contractor gives the result the contractee wants (if possible). The thing to watch is the markets where people are actually "betting" on who they expect. There are a couple, but the one I like is http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
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