This is and remains a very volitile race. The margins of the two major polls released in the last couple of days have differed by 10 points. One candidate is very hard to find on the ballot. Another is right next to an (inexplicably) popular governor on the ballot, yet pulls in only single digits.

Politicians and candidates - whether they're ahead or behind - will inevitably tell you that polls don't matter. They're generally correct. The horse race is the last thing that should matter to voters, but the first thing to catch their attention when it appears in newsprint or on TV. But even in a race like this that's proven impossible to poll (Quinnipiac was off by double digits in the days before the primary), polls do have an effect. Especially when some figures and voters in the party decide to hedge their bets in order to blow with the prevailing polling wind. That's why it's so great to see the new ad today, stressing party unity and reminding voters of the reasons behind this campaign from the day Ned announced back in March. More above.