Disclosure: I worked for the Lamont campaign doing web design and production and some writing for the official blog (from 9/5/06 to 11/07/06).

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

 

Tuesday Late-Night Roundup


Comments:
"The Southbury DTC endorsed Lamont yesterday. The town will send 8 delegates to the convention."

This is proving my thesis true, that in the small CT towns, where the Dem delegates are NOT financially dependent upon a big city Dem mayor for city jobs or city contracts, the delegates are going bigtime for Lamont.

This means a lot, because the huge bulk of Connecticut's Dem convention delegates will be coming from small towns.

Lieberman's Dem delegate base seem to be in the large CT cities, but only when a large CT city's Dem delegation is controlled by a Dem party machine mayor, such as is the case in Hartford, where the Dem mayor Eddie Perez has packed the Hartford Dem delegation with employees of the City of Hartford and contractors to the City of Hartford, which means that Mayor Perez controls the financial livelihoods of many Hartford Dem delegates. Since Mayor Perez is a Dem party machine player who has already endorsed Lieberman, I expect most of the Hartford Dem delegation to vote for Lieberman.

Hartford has a total of 54 delegates to the Dem convention out of a total of 1,160 CT Dem convention delegates statewide, so Hartford will not have that much of an impact in the May Dem convention anyway, and I have been told that 15% of the Hartford Dem delegation, ie, those Hartford Dem delegates who are not financially beholden to Hartford Mayor Perez, will vote for Lamont, so even Dem-machine-controlled Hartford will deliver at least 15% for Lamont at the May Dem convention.

Interestingly, in contrast to Hartford, the Dem delegation in another CT big city, New Britain, which has a repub mayor, is going big time for Lamont.

In the case of the New Britain Dem delegation, since they have no financial dependencies upon the New Britain repub mayor, they are thus free to vote their hearts without any fear of losing their financial livelihoods.

That is, the New Britain Dem delegation (which consists of 30 delegates total), being free of any Dem party machine mayorial financial influence, seem to be going overwhelmingly for Lamont.

I would like to see Colin McEnroe research & publish a list of those Hartford Dem delegates who have some sort of direct financial dependency (either a Hartford city job or a Hartford city service contract) upon Hartford Mayor Eddie Perez, to let those Hartford Dem delegates know that they will be watched to see if there will be a definitive correlation pattern between their financial dependencies upon the pro-Lieberman Hartford Mayor Eddie Perez and whether those delegates vote for Lieberman at the May Dem Convention.

I'd like to know if anybody else in any other big CT cities are seeing the same sort of contrasts that I am seeng in Hartford versus New Britain, ie, stark differences in Dem delegate preferences based on whether a particular big-city mayor is a party machine Dem who has packed a big city delegation or not.

The bottom line here is that if the small CT towns continue to declare for Lamont like they have been doing, I fail to see how Lieberman can win even 51% at the May Dem convention.
 
Does anyone have any idea about the delegate vote count? Has Lamont's campaign come up with an unofficial "guesstimate"?
I know that 16 of 22 Greenwich delegates declared for Lamont, including the DTC chair; Lamont got 8 of 11 from Ridgefield; half from Fairfield (?); 8 from Southfield (?).

What's the count? And does anyone know exactly who pledged for Lamont from New Britain?
 
You make a very good point; for all the great stuff that the local blogs are doing for this race, they are seriously missing the ball by them not keeping a running tally of the Dem delegate count for Lamont.

The most prominent local pro-Lamont blogs should start up permanent sections on their sites where anyone can easily just go and see the very latest Dem delegate counts by town pledged to Lamont. The bloggers should be talking to all the Dem DTC's that publically pledge for Lamont, and start posting running numbers of the pledged & estimated delegates for Lamont, like from New Britain, for example.

Bloggers, are you listening?
 
Personally, I think counting delegates is a little bit like counting chickens before they hatch. I know quite a few people who were counting on all 27 of the delegates in Manchester.

In fact, most delegates are not committed the way they are in the presidential and might not vote as reported. In fact, I believe in some cases, the Democratic Town Committees can require delegates to vote a certain way on the first ballot, even if the delegate wants to vote a different way.

Counting delegates simply sets up false expectations. While I would love to see Lieberman fail to get 51% of the delegates, I doubt very much that will happen.

We need to keep our eye on the ball. The goal is to get 15% of the delegates . Anything else is pure gravy. Our goal is to enough petitions signed so that if Lieberman's camp manages to pull some manoever which blocks from getting the 15% of delegates, we will still be on the ballot.

Please, focus. If you are friends with someone who is a delegate, speak with them. Beyond that, please sign up for the petition drive
 
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