Disclosure: I worked for the Lamont campaign doing web design and production and some writing for the official blog (from 9/5/06 to 11/07/06).

Thursday, August 17, 2006


Q-Poll: Lieberman (LIEB) 53, Lamont (D) 41, Schlesinger (R) 4 (LV)

The latest Quinnipiac poll shows Ned Lamont (D) surging post-primary, with an 11 point bounce (among RVs) in the three-way race since a month ago. Ned now has the support of 63% of Democrats, compared to the 52% he won in the primary on Tuesday.

Amazingly, Alan Schlesinger (R) gets only 4%, which must be one of the lowest numbers a major party candidate has received in any poll for any statewide office, in any state, ever.

I've been arguing on this blog for months that Joe Lieberman's base voters are right-wing Republicans. And this poll is simply astounding in the way it proves this point. Lieberman wins Republicans 75-13-10 in a three-way race. That's right. He gets 3/4 of the Republican vote, with a Republican candidate in the race. Lamont (D) even outpolls Schlesinger (R) by 3 points among Republicans.

The trends are in Lamont's favor. He's solidifying his support among Democrats. He's already proven he can energize the Democratic party to turn out and vote for him in record numbers. And he'll likely continue to make gains among Independents and Republicans, who haven't been part of this campaign yet.

Trends for Lieberman do not look good. His disapproval ratings are +5 since July, up to an all time high among RVs. His unfavorable rating is also +5 since July, also at an all time high. The number who believe he should be re-elected is -5, down to 51.

Joe Lieberman (Lieberman) needs to maintain this stratospheric level of support from Republicans in order to have any chance of winning in November. Expect more support to flow his way from GOP donors and polticians, and zero pressure on Schlesinger to leave.

The real story of this race is Lieberman (Lieberman) rapidly turning into Lieberman (R).

You'll notice there's no talk from Lieberman or Gerstein about being an "independent Democrat" or "petitioning Democrat" anymore. Lieberman is now the GOP candidate.
How much are the Republicans paying Schlesinger to stay in the race?
actually, if anyone is surging, I think it is Joe. The orignal poll last week had Joe at 46, Red Ned at 41 and Schlesinger at 6.
I really wish Quinnipiac had, just for this one poll, polled only on Lamont and Schlesinger. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Lieberman has not yet been approved by the Secretary of State to be on the ballot. As such, his candidacy remains a mere zygote in the eyes of the state.

Had Quinnipiac limited the poll to just the two major party candidates (where any other 3rd party candidates included? Why wasn't Ralph Ferrucci of the Green Party included?), Lamont would look like the titan that he is and it would be clear that the Democrats would retain this seat.

--Matt Browner-Hamlin
The "original poll" was Rasmussen, not Quinnipiac. The two polls cannot be compared as their methodology is not remotely similar.

FWIW, Lamont is up another 12 points from Quinnipiac's July poll.

Concluding that Lieberman's poll numbers are surging from losing the democratic primary is ludicrous. Waht is evident is that Lieberman is gaining Republican support to offset what he loses in Democratic and indepndent support.
you're right scarce my bad it was rasmussen now that you mention it. Whether lamont or lieberman win, the democrats hold onto the seat. The country wins if lieberman wins, because we dont end up with another wacko liberal in the senate.
Its pretty funny that a multi-millionaire entrepreneurcan be described as a "whacko liberal"
he is an entrepreneur in the mold of Ted Kennedy. He knows as much about running a business as my 6 year old who has a weekly lemonade stand.
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